A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H. G. Wells to Isaac Asimov by Peter J. Bowler

Author:Peter J. Bowler [Bowler, Peter J.]
Language: eng
Format: azw, pdf
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2017-10-30T16:00:00+00:00

Fig. 8.3. Spaceships refuelling at a space station.

From Arthur C. Clarke, The Exploration of Space (1951), facing p. 5.

In the heady days after the war, the proponents of space exploration expected that the development of new rocket technologies would proceed rapidly enough for the first steps to be taken well before the end of the century. Rocket planes for supersonic travel were widely predicted, encouraging the hope that the rapid progress in aviation would lead seamlessly to the development of satellites, space stations and planetary exploration. Clarke and Wyndham both expected moon bases by the end of the century. Heinlein’s future history chart predicted a landing on the moon in 1978 and the establishment of a colony in the following decade. Asimov’s predictions for the World’s Fair of 2014 mentioned the problems of time-lag in radio communications with the moon colony. Those directly involved were equally optimistic: von Braun in 1953 thought that the moon landing would be within twenty-five years. The public, too, were catching the mood of optimism. In 1948, a Gallup poll indicated that only 15 per cent of the US population thought it would be possible to reach the moon. By 1958, 38 per cent thought it would be reached within fifty years and, following the launch of Sputnik in 1957, 41 per cent thought there would be a landing within twenty-five years or perhaps even earlier.25

In fact, the first steps took place even more rapidly than the enthusiasts imagined. No one had anticipated the artificial sense of urgency created by the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union, which generated programmes whose main purpose was simply to beat the rival to the goal. The Apollo moon landings created huge excitement, but they were only brief exploratory trips using technology that had no prospect of being extended to allow actual colonization. By the time of the last landing in 1974, the public had lost interest as new areas of concern including the Vietnam War and growing worries about the environment became paramount. Perhaps if there had been a sense that the occupation of the moon would become permanent, there would have been a better chance of keeping up the momentum of popular interest, but NASA was now turning its attention to the space shuttle, unmanned satellites and probes.

As Clarke later admitted, another reason why he and many others had been confident of steady progress was their expectation that rocket technology would soon be making use of atomic power. In 1946, he had written: ‘only atomic energy is adequate to lift really large payloads out of Earth’s gravitational field’ – a comment which he acknowledged made embarrassing reading when reprinted in 1999. Most of the writers active in the immediate post-war decades thought that atomic power – here as in many other areas – would solve all their problems. The failure of the nuclear power industry to develop anything other than reactors far too massive to be used in aircraft or rockets meant that the whole process of space exploration would have to take place using traditional chemical rockets.

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